RIP library.nu

Hey,

I needed to read a book, to learn something new, isn’t that exciting, and I discovered that library.nu was dead. Here you’ll find an excellent post about it, see also the comments for an interesting discussion.

It’s stupid and really sad, but bookfi dot org. So I guess it’s OK.

Pierre

Valentine Day and lonely people in France

Insee published recently a paper (in French), well in line with the Valentine Day, which characterizes people living alone or in couple by socio-professional category, along with the data.

Between 1990 and 2008 (two population surveys), the proportion of people living alone mostly increased for people under 60. After 60, 38% of women live alone, for only 17% of men,  because women are married to older men, and live longer than them, in average. See that proportion by age:

Spatially, there is a kind of South/North opposition. During the working life, lonely people live in the South (left), while lonely retired people live in the North (right), with an exception for Île-de-France (Paris) with a high proportion whatever the age:

Next stop: Sydney

Hey hey,

After a very interesting week in the Department of Statistics and Applied Probability at the National University of Singapore, where I’ve started some projects about the mathematics behind Sequential Monte Carlo methods with the expert Ajay Jasra, I’m heading towards Sydney, Australia. I love my life at the moment!

Tip for the travelers among you: ScribTeX is a very convenient website if you travel without a laptop. You can type LaTeX documents online and also compile them, and see the resulting PDF. They seem to have all the necessary packages and I could easily type beamer presentations. The editor is a bit simple but it could still save your life!

Speaking of slides, I will be talking next Thursday at the MCQMC conference. My office mate Christian Schaefer will be there too if you wish to speak to an expert in SMC on binary spaces. As for me, I’ll be talking about the properties of the stochastic schedule in the Wang-Landau algorithm, linked with our recent article with Robin Ryder.

Then on February 20th, I’ll give an informal talk at the Centre for Language Science in Macquarie University. That’s quite random, yes. Many thanks to Mark Johnson who contacted me through the blog! There I’ll speak about recent advances in computational Bayesian statistics. These linguists already use SMC for word segmentation and show interest in the latest advances. I’ll hence talk about PMCMC/SMC^2 and also ABC.

Bye bye.

Daily casualties in Syria

Every new day brings its statistics of new deaths in Syria… Here is an attempt to learn about the Syrian uprising by the figures. Data vary among sources: the Syrian opposition provides the number of casualties by day (here on Dropbox), updated on 8 February 2012, with a total exceeding 8 000.

We note first that the attacks accelerate, as the cumulated graph is mostly convex (click to enlarge):

Plotting the numbers by day shows the bloody situation of  Fridays, a gathering day in the Muslin calendar. This point was especially true at the beginning of the uprising, but lately any other day can be equally deadly:

There are almost twice as much deaths on Fridays as any other day in average:
Here are boxplots for the logarithm of daily casualties by day of the week:

and their density estimates, first coloured by day of the week, then by Friday vs rest of the week:

Here is the code (with clumsy parts for fitting the data frames for ggplot, do not hesitate to comment on it)

library(ggplot2)
input=read.csv("http://dl.dropbox.com/u/1391912/Blog%20statisfaction/data/syria.txt",
               sep="\t",header=TRUE,stringsAsFactors=FALSE)
input$LogicalFriday=factor(input$WeekDay =="Friday",levels = c(FALSE, TRUE),
                           labels = c("Not Friday", "Friday"))
input$Date=as.Date(input$History,"%d/%m/%Y")
input$WeekDays=factor(input$WeekDay,
                      levels=unique(as.character(input$WeekDay[7:13]))) # trick to sort the legend
qplot(x=Date,y=cumsum(Number), data=input, geom="line",color=I("red"),xlab="",ylab="",lwd=I(1))
qplot(x=as.factor(Date),y=Number, data=input, geom="bar",fill=LogicalFriday,xlab="",ylab="")
qplot(log(Number+1), data=input, geom="density",fill=LogicalFriday,xlab="",ylab="",alpha=I(.2))
qplot(log(Number+1), data=input, geom="density",fill=WeekDay,xlab="",ylab="",alpha=I(.2))
qplot(WeekDays,log(Number+1),data=input,geom="boxplot",xlab="",ylab="",colour=WeekDays)

Created by Pretty R at inside-R.org

Coming R meetings in Paris

If you live in Paris and are interested in R, there will be two meetings for you this week.

First a Semin-R session, organized at the Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle on Tuesday 7 Feb (too bad, the Museum is closed on Tuesdays). Presentations will be about colors, phylogenies and maps, while I will speak about (my beloved) RStudio. The slides of previous sessions can be found here (most of them are in French).

The following day, 8 Feb, a group of R users from INSEE will have its first meeting (13-14h, INSEE, room R12), about SQLite data in R, maps, and in R.

I guess anyone can join!

UPDATE: Here is a colorful map to access INSEE . Come with an ID, and say you are visiting the meeting organizer Matthieu Cornec. Room R12 is on the ground floor (left).

Heading to the National University of Singapore

Hey there,

Next Wednesday (Feb 8th) I’ll give a talk on SMC² at the National University of Singapore (3pm, S16-06-118, DSAP Seminar Room if you’re interested).

By the way, the SMC² paper has been hugely revised, along with the python package and the supplement. Among the main changes, we made a thorough comparison with Liu & West SMC method (which is based on extending the hidden state to include the parameter), and we added a fair bit of justification of the computational cost of the method, which we believe is very reasonable considering the difficulty of the problem (ie estimation in HMM) and the cost of concurrent algorithms. We also considered the validity of SMC² on a sequence of annealed posterior densities, following a reviewer’s interesting comment. It’s good to be finished with it (for now at least), and to move to new projects!

I’ll spend next week in Singapore working with Ajay Jasra, and then I’ll head off to the Monte Carlo and Quasi Monte Carlo conference in Sydney, where I’ll stay for ~2 weeks. I’ll be worth another blog post of course.

Cheers!