Google Trends Gadget and French Socialists

(Wikimedia image)

A primary election for selecting the Socialist candidate for the next presidential election will take place on October 9 and 16. There are 6 candidates: Martine Aubry, Jean-Michel Baylet, Arnaud Montebourg, François Hollande, Ségolène Royal and Manuel Valls… yes indeed, Dominique Strauss-Kahn will not enter the competition!

The first TV debate, Des paroles et des actes – Le débat des primaires, is this evening, 20:35 Paris time, forecasted on France 2 and online. And it’s going to be amusing, if not thought-provoking.

Last polls (BVA) are as follows: 47% Hollande, 29% Aubry, 12% Ségolène Royal, 6% Montebourg, 4% Valls and 1% Baylet (please do not ask for error margins).

To have an insight of the favorite Google searches (among French people), we can use the embeddable Google Trends Gadget. Nice features include daily updates, and choice of different time periods with one click. But there is no label on time axis, shame.

It does not work properly in WordPress yet, too bad! Or am I not using it right? Instead of the embeddable version, the classic one still does the job. Yet, quick and dirty copy/paste of the Gadget for the major 3 candidates :

1 month period

1 year period

“max time” period

It’s curious (suspicious?) to see that the curves are not exactly consistent across time periods. The reason is probably explained in Google Trends math.

Aubry outperformed the others for the last few months, but Hollande seems indeed to gain power these days. Royal vanishes (!) with the “last month” tab. On the “max” tab, she performs well in 2007, as expected. Let’s see what happens in mid-October!

UPDATE: actually WordPress does not allow all HTML tags for security reasons. Banned tags include: embed, frame, iframe, form, input, object, textarea, including iframe which is used for the Google Trend Gadget.

Published by Julyan Arbel

Researcher at Inria Grenoble Rhône-Alpes

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